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dc.contributor.authorJackson, Lawrence S.
dc.contributor.authorMaycock, Amanda C.
dc.contributor.authorAndrews, Timothy
dc.contributor.authorFredriksen, Hege-Beate
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.authorM. Forster, Piers
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-14T12:40:57Z
dc.date.available2022-12-14T12:40:57Z
dc.date.issued2022-08-04
dc.description.abstractClimate model emulators are widely used to generate temperature projections for climate scenarios, including in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Here we evaluate the performance of a two-layer energy balance model in emulating historical and future temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We find that emulation errors can be large (>0.5°C for SSP2-4.5) and differ markedly between climate models, forcing scenarios and time periods. Errors arise in emulating the near-surface temperature response to both greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing; in some periods the errors due to these forcings oppose one another, giving the spurious impression of better emulator performance. Climate feedbacks are assumed constant in the emulator, introducing time-varying or state dependent feedbacks may reduce prediction errors. Close emulations can be produced for a given period but, crucially, this does not guarantee reliable emulations of other scenarios and periods. Therefore, rigorous out-of-sample evaluation is necessary to characterize emulator performance.en_US
dc.descriptionAccepted manuscript version. VoR with minor editorial changes available at <a href=https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098808>https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098808</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationJackson, Maycock, Andrews, Fredriksen, Smith, M. Forster. Errors in Simple Climate Model Emulations of Past and Future Global Temperature Change. Geophysical Research Letters. 2022;49(15)en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2041324
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2022GL098808
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276
dc.identifier.issn1944-8007
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/27820
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.journalGeophysical Research Letters
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/Norway/Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections/CONSTRAIN/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2022 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleErrors in Simple Climate Model Emulations of Past and Future Global Temperature Changeen_US
dc.type.versionacceptedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Med mindre det står noe annet, er denne innførselens lisens beskrevet som Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)