Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorBochow, Nils
dc.contributor.authorBoers, Niklas
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-18T08:51:29Z
dc.date.available2023-10-18T08:51:29Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-04
dc.description.abstractThe Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss, but the critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, and possible impacts of forest degradation on the monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model of the moisture transport and recycling across the Amazon to identify several precursor signals for a critical transition in the coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided by our simulations, we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition in reanalysis and observational data. In accordance with our model results, we attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBochow, Boers. The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. Science Advances. 2023en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2182571
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.add9973
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/31582
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Scienceen_US
dc.relation.ispartofBochow, N. (2024). Modelling the Earth System - From Tipping Elements to Reconstructions. (Doctoral thesis). <a href=https://hdl.handle.net/10037/33717>https://hdl.handle.net/10037/33717</a>.
dc.relation.journalScience Advances
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820970/EU/Tipping Points in the Earth System/TiPES/en_US
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/956170/EU/Multiscales and Critical Transitions in the Earth System/CriticalEarth/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2023 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleThe South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestationen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


File(s) in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)