Regulating shipping under conditions of uncertainty: The Arctic Ocean and knowledge-based decision-making.

Abstract

This paper discusses the role of scientific research in regulating shipping in Arctic waters. Scientific research is a major provider of knowledge relevant to environmental protection, including that of the marine Arctic. Put bluntly, scientific research is essential in identifying an environmental ‘problem’, in providing an adequate diagnosis, and in prescribing solutions to the problem. In other words, scientific research provides assessments of the scope and potential negative impacts of environmental threats. This knowledge then provides the basis on which to craft legal measures to resolve the particular problem. Climate change is one such problem. Climate change is transforming the marine Arctic, opening up, among other things, new shipping opportunities. However, according to Solan et al., the pace of change is “such that our understanding of the way in which Arctic systems are structured and function is outdated, and insufficient to inform management, mitigation, and adaptation efforts across the region.” Still, there is a need to regulate human activities, including shipping, even in face of these uncertainties.