Dynamic spare parts transportation model for Arctic production facility
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8630Dato
2015-09-14Type
Journal articleTidsskriftartikkel
Peer reviewed
Sammendrag
Timely delivery of the required spare parts plays an important role in meeting the
availability target and reducing the downtime of production facilities. Spare parts logistics is
affected in complex ways while operating in the Arctic, since the area is sparsely populated and
has insufficient infrastructure. It is also greatly affected by the distinctive operational
environment of the region, such as cold temperature, varying forms of sea ice, blizzards, heavy
fog, etc. Therefore, in order to have an effective logistic plan, the effect of all influencing
factors, called covariates, on the transportation of the spare parts need to be identified, modelled
and quantified by the use of an appropriate dynamic model. The traditional models, however,
lack the comprehensive integration of the effect of covariates on the spare parts transportation.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of a dynamic model for spare parts
transportation in Arctic conditions by considering the time-independent and time-dependent
covariates. The model continuously updates the prior probabilities according to the most recent
time-dependent covariates to provide posterior probabilities. The application of the model is
illustrated using a case study.
Beskrivelse
Accepted manuscript version. Published version at http://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-015-0379-x.