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dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Kristoffer
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-07T15:04:44Z
dc.date.available2016-03-07T15:04:44Z
dc.date.issued2015-11-18
dc.description.abstractMultiple, linear regression is employed to attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is to assess how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory (LRM) in the model for the temperature response. The model response to a given forcing component is its fingerprint and is different for a zero response time (ZRT) model and one with an LRM response. The fingerprints are used as predictors in the regression scheme to express the response as a linear combination of footprints. For the instrumental period 1880–2010 CE (Common Era) the LRM response model explains 89 % of the total variance and is also favoured by information-theoretic model selection criteria. The anthropogenic footprint is relatively insensitive to LRM scaling in the response and explains almost all global warming after 1970 CE. The solar footprint is weakly enhanced by the LRM response, while the volcanic footprint is reduced by a factor of 2. The natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales has no systematic trend and is dominated by the footprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The 2000–2010 CE hiatus is explained as a natural variation. A corresponding analysis for the last millennium is performed, using a Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is explained as mainly due to volcanic cooling or as a long-memory response to a strong radiative disequilibrium during the Medieval Warm Anomaly, and it is not attributed to the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum.en_US
dc.descriptionPublished version. Source at <a href=http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-719-2015>http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-719-2015</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationEarth System Dynamics 6(2015) s. 719-730en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1290370
dc.identifier.doihttp://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-719-2015
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/8742
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:no-uit_munin_8279
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus GmbHen_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccess
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453en_US
dc.titleAttribution in the presence of a long-memory climate responseen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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