Energy and security in transition - Insights and lessons from the Nordic region

Abstract

This thesis explores how renewable energy sources can affect and thus potentially change the conceptualization of energy security through an empirical investigation of the Nordic region. To explore the energy security concept, energy and security of renewables in the Nordic countries is analysed by employing the wide framework designed by Bengt Johansson. The analysis reveals that renewable energy has various implications in the Nordic countries, of which some are similar, and some are distinct to certain countries. Going further, the renewable energy system is expected to be regional and many challenges related to the intermittent character of renewable energy sources can be solved by and through regional integration. The second stage of analysis therefore explores the compatibility between the Nordic regional vision of becoming a carbon-neutral region and the respective national strategies. Data from the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios is compared with national renewable energy production plans towards 2040. The analysis shows that national strategies diverge from the NCES in different ways, and that the Nordic countries are currently not on track to reach the objective of carbon-neutrality by 2050. The thesis finds that these discrepancies can be attributed to mainly national priorities of self-sufficiency and security concerns, or internal debates and matters of public or political acceptance. Based on these two stages of analysis, the thesis concludes with five assumptions on what energy security in renewables can imply: it will be regional, liberalised and interdependent, it is contextual, and public acceptance plays a decisive role. These features can be both barriers and success factors for the realisation of the carbon-neutral Nordic region, and even for other regions to follow.