Estimating the Available Energy Flexibility A case study of Helgeland

Abstract

This thesis project was commissioned by Cegal and aimed to investigate the potential for demand-side flexibility in the Helgeland region, as well as evaluate forecasting methods for a demand-response system. The future energy situation in the area was analyzed, while the experimental part investigated forecasting methods which can be applied in a demand-response system. Finally, the project investigated the potential of a commercial building to provide demand side flexibility, analyzing the financial aspects of such participation. The research findings indicate that the energy and load balance in the Helge- land region may decrease in the coming years, potentially leading to tight load balance conditions. LSTM and XGBoost has been the investigated forecasting methods in this study, where both models showed promising results, though further improvements are recommended. The commercial building investigated had the capacity to provide 23.87 KW flexibility, and the financial analysis suggested that the consumer would benefit from participating in a demand response system, depending on the needs of flexibility. This thesis project contributes to the development of a demand-response system and highlights the areas for further research on forecasting methods and potential asset providers in the Helgeland region.