Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity

Abstract

Earth’s climate cooled markedly during the late Miocene from 12 to 5 million years ago, with far-reaching consequences for global ecosystems. However, the driving forces of these changes remain controversial. A major obstacle to progress is the uncertainty over the role played by greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Here we present boron isotope compositions for planktic foraminifera, which record carbon dioxide change for the interval of most rapid cooling, the late Miocene cooling event between 7 and 5 Ma. Our record suggests that CO₂ declined by some 100 ppm over this two-million-year-long interval to a minimum at approximately 5.9 Ma. Having accounted for non-CO₂ greenhouse gasses and slow climate feedbacks, we estimate global mean surface temperature change for a doubling of CO₂—equilibrium climate sensitivity—to be 3.9 °C (1.8–6.7 °C at 95% confidence) on the basis of comparison of our record of radiative forcing from CO₂ with a record of global mean surface temperature change. We conclude that changes in CO₂ and climate were closely coupled during the latest Miocene and that equilibrium climate sensitivity was within range of estimates for the late Pleistocene, other intervals of the Cenozoic and the twenty-first century as presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.