Arctic shipping trends during hazardous weather and sea-ice conditions and the Polar Code’s effectiveness

Abstract

The Arctic’s extreme environmental conditions and remoteness make it a complex and dynamic environment for maritime operators. We find that Arctic shipping has grown by 7% per year over the past decade, despite the hazardous weather and sea-ice conditions that pose risks to vessels operating in the region. As a result of a strong increase in winter sailing, the time ships operate in these extreme conditions has even tripled. To mitigate maritime risks, the Polar Code has been introduced. Among other things, it regulates Arctic shipping by specifying hazardous conditions with a sea-ice classification scheme and design temperature threshold. However, we argue that the Polar Code needs refinement through the integration of maritime warning systems and a broader description of hazardous conditions. This is supported by an analysis of shipping activity patterns in severe sea-spray icing conditions and a discussion of a recent sea-ice induced incident along the Northern Sea Route.