The competitive edge of Norway's hydrogen by 2030: Socio-environmental considerations

Abstract

Can Norway be an important hydrogen exporter to the European Union (EU) by 2030? We explore three scenarios in which Norway's hydrogen export market may develop: A Business-as-usual, B Moderate Onshore, C Accelerated Offshore. Applying a sector-coupled energy system model, we examine the techno-economic viability, spatial and socio-economic considerations for blue and green hydrogen export in the form of ammonia by ship. Our results estimate the costs of low-carbon hydrogen to be 3.5–7.3€/kg hydrogen. While Norway may be cost-competitive in blue hydrogen exports to the EU, its sustainability is limited by the reliance on natural gas and the nascent infrastructure for carbon transport and storage. For green hydrogen exports, Norway may leverage its strong relations with the EU, but is less cost-competitive than countries like Chile and Morocco, which benefit from cheaper solar power. For all scenarios, significant land use is needed to generate enough renewable energy. Developing a green hydrogen-based export market requires policy support and strategic investments in technology, infrastructure and stakeholder engagement, ensuring a more equitable distribution of renewable installations across Norway and national security in the north. Using carbon capture and storage technologies and offshore wind to decarbonise the offshore platforms is a win-win solution that would leave more electricity for developing new industries and demonstrate the economic viability of these technologies. Finally, for Norway to become a key hydrogen exporter to the EU will require a balanced approach that emphasises public acceptance and careful land use management to avoid costly consequences.